Table of Contents

Chapter 1: Introduction
Why Intelligence Fails
What the Book Is About
Summary
Notes
Chapter 2: Intelligence in Twenty-First-Century Century Conflict
Nature of Twenty-First-Century Century Conflict
Tools of Conflict
The Conflict Spectrum
The Function of Intelligence
Summary
Notes
Part I: The Analysis Process
Chapter 3: The Intelligence Process
The Traditional Intelligence Cycle
Intelligence as a Target-Centric Process
The Target
Summary
Notes
Chapter 4: Defining the Intelligence Issue
Statement of the Issue
The Issue Definition Product
Issue Decomposition
Complex Issue Decomposition
Structured Analytic Methodologies for Issue Definition
Example: Defining the Counterintelligence Issue
Summary
Notes
Chapter 5: Conceptual Frameworks for Intelligence Analysis
Analytic Perspectives - PMESII
Modeling the Intelligence Target
Modeling Using PMESII
Using Models in Analysis
Summary
Notes
Chapter 6: Overview of Models in Intelligence
Creating a Conceptual Model
Textual Models
Mathematical Models
Visual Models
Advanced Target Models
Target Model Combinations
Alternative and Competitive Target Models
Summary
Notes
Chapter 7: Creating the Model
Existing Intelligence
Sources of New Raw Intelligence
Evaluating Evidence
Combining Evidence
Structured Augmentation
A Note About the Role of Information Technology
Summary
Notes
Chapter 8: Denial, Deception, and Signaling
Denial
Deception
Defense against D&D: Protecting Intelligence Sources and Methods
Higher Level Denial and Deception
Countering Denial and Deception
Signaling
Analytic Tradecraft in a World of Denial and Deception
Summary
Notes
Chapter 9: Systems Modeling and Analysis
Analyzing an Existing System: The Mujahedeen Insurgency
Analyzing a Developmental System: Methodology
Performance
Schedule
Risk
Cost
Operations Research
Summary
Notes
Chapter 10: Network Modeling and Analysis
Link Models
Network Models
Some Network Types
Modeling the Network
Analyzing the Network
Summary
Notes
Chapter 11: Geospatial and Temporal Modeling and Analysis
Static Geospatial Models
Temporal Models
Dynamic Geospatial Models
Summary
Notes
Part II: The Estimative Process
Chapter 12: Predictive Analysis
Introduction to Predictive Analysis
Convergent and Divergent Phenomena
The Estimative Approach
Summary
Notes
Chapter 13: Estimative Forces
Inertia
Countervailing Forces
Contamination
Synergy
Feedback
Unintended Consequences
Summary
Notes
Chapter 14: Scenarios
Why Use Scenarios?
Types of Scenarios
Scenario Perspectives
How to Construct Scenarios
Indicators and the Role of Intelligence
A Scenario Exercise: The Global Information Environment in 2020
Summary
Notes
Chapter 15: Simulation Modeling
Types of Simulations
Creating and Running a Simulation
Simulations Used in Intelligence Analysis
Decision Modeling and Simulation
Checking the Decision Model: Red Team Analysis
Summary
Notes
Part III: Systems and Network Views of Analysis
Chapter 16: A Systems View: Function
Intelligence Research
Current Intelligence
Indications and Warning
What Should an Intelligence Unit Produce?
Limits and Boundaries
The Pathology of Failures
Summary
Notes
Chapter 17: A Systems View: Process
Identify the Customer
Planning the Analysis Project
Managing Team Efforts
Preparing the Analytic Product
Reviewing the Analytic Product
Evaluating the Analytic Product
Summary
Notes
Chapter 18: A Systems View: Structure
Topical or Regional Structure?
The Analyst
Analytic Teams
Summary
Notes
Chapter 19: A Network View: The Customer
Overview of Customers
Analyst-Customer Interaction
Summary
Notes
Chapter 20: A Network View: The Collector
The U.S. Collection Management Problem
Interrelating the Issue and Target Model
Identifying Gaps
Developing the Collection Strategy
Planning for Future Collection: Filling the Long-Term Gaps
Executing Collection Strategies
Summary
Notes

About the Author

Robert M. Clark has more than five decades of U.S. intelligence community experience. A USAF lieutenant colonel (retired), Dr. Clark served as an electronics warfare officer and intelligence officer. At the CIA, he was a senior analyst and group chief responsible for developing analytic methodologies. He was cofounder and CEO of the Scientific and Technical Analysis Corporation, a privately held company serving the U.S. intelligence community. Clark holds an SB from MIT, a PhD in electrical engineering from the University of Illinois, and a JD from George Washington University. Beyond analyzing wicked intelligence issues, his passion is writing on the topic of intelligence. His books include Intelligence Analysis: A Target-Centric Approach (5th edition, 2016), The Technical Collection of Intelligence (2010), and Intelligence Collection (2014). He is coauthor, with Dr. William Mitchell, of Target-Centric Network Modeling (2015) and Deception: Counterdeception and Counterintelligence (2019); and coeditor, with Dr. Mark Lowenthal, of Intelligence Collection: The Five Disciplines (2015). Dr. Clark also develops and teaches courses for audiences in academia, national intelligence, and the military. He currently serves as an adjunct professor at the Johns Hopkins University teaching graduate courses.




 

 

Reviews

"Intelligence Analysis: A Target-Centric Approach offers strong, in-depth coverage of the intelligence process, the evaluation of data, and the analysis of the customer. Clark’s work has demonstrated its professional success and acceptance within the academic community and the practicing world of intelligence analysis."
*Ronald Vardy*

"Intelligence Analysis: A Target-Centric Approach is a major contributor toward making intelligence analysis a more scientific process. Those involved in behavioral analysis have tended to rely more on intuitive approaches and the historical method for their analyses. With Clark’s text, behavioral analysts can learn the utility and procedures for making their analyses more systematic and scientific. It comprehensively covers modeling and other analytic techniques, as well as the intelligence cycle, collection, managing analysis and dealing with intelligence customers."
*Michael Collier*

"Intelligence Analysis: A Target-Centric Approach is a top notch text, written by an expert, and aimed at serious intelligence courses. Clark provides a well-rounded book that touches on all relevant collection and analytical disciplines."
*Carl Wege*