Reckoning with Risk

At the beginning of the 20th century, the father of modern science fiction, H.G. Wells, predicted that statistical thinking would be as necessary for citizenship in a technological world as the ability to read and write. Yet, a century on, most of us, from television weather forecasters to the American President, seem to have no idea of how to reason about uncertainties. Accordingly, a number of books have marshalled a long roster of cognitive illusions as evidence of humans' fundamental irrationality. Detailing case histories and examples, this text presents readers with tools for understanding statistics. In so doing, it encourages us to overcome our innumeracy and empowers us to take responsibility for our own choices.

Table of Contents

Part I Dare to know: uncertainty; the illusion of certainty; innumeracy; insight. Part II Understanding uncertainties in the real world: breast cancer screening; (un)informed consent; AIDS counselling; wife battering; experts on trial; DNA fingerprinting; violent people. Part III From innumeracy to insight: how innumeracy can be exploited; fun problems; teaching clear thinking.

Reviews

"This is an important book, full of relevant examples and worrying case histories. By the end of it, the reader has been presented with a powerful set of tools for understanding statistics...anyone who wants to take responsibly for their own medical choices should read it" - New Scientist

About the Author

Gerd Gigerenzer is Director of the Centre for Adaptive Behaviour and Cognition (ABC) at the Max Planck Institute for Human Development in Berlin and a former Professor of Psychology at the University of Chicago.