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Against Prediction
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About the Author

Bernard E. Harcourt is professor of law and director of the Center for Studies in Criminal Justice at the University of Chicago. He is the author of "Illusion of Order: The False Promise of Broken Windows Policing"and "Language of the Gun: Youth, Crime, and Public Policy.""

Reviews

"In "Against Prediction," Bernard Harcourt stresses that while the benefits of actuarial predictions have been widely touted, certain costs have been largely overlooked. Indeed, actuarial prediction can under some circumstances actually increase crime, and generate morally problematic social wounds on the profiled classes that might outweigh the benefits even if crime is reduced. Once again, Harcourt has challenged the conventional wisdom in criminal justice policy, and offered an indictment to the practice of actuarial prediction that policymakers, scholars and concerned citizens will have to fully consider."--John J. Donohue III, Leighton Homer Surbeck Professor of Law, Yale Law School
-- John J. Donohue III (08/28/2006)
0;Bernard Harcourt has never had an uninteresting thought, or made an argument that does not provoke or engage or delight or enlighten2;or do all of those things simultaneously.1;2;Malcolm Gladwell
-- Malcolm Gladwell (08/28/2006)
0;This is a creative, provocative, well-researched argument against current practice in sentencing, parole discrimination, and investigative profiling. Harcourt makes the case that a century of social science-inspired thinking about punishment and profiling should be cast out in favor of randomness. It is a position that will be dismissed by many as politically impractical, if not absurd. But that is often the immediate fate of revolutionary ideas.1;--Jack Katz, University of California, Los Angeles

0;In "Against Prediction," Bernard Harcourt stresses that while the benefits of actuarial predictions have been widely touted, certain costs have been largely overlooked. Indeed, actuarial prediction can under some circumstances actually increase crime, and generate morally problematic social wounds on the profiled classes that might outweigh the benefits even if crime is reduced. Once again, Harcourt has challenged the conventional wisdom in criminal justice policy, and offered an indictment to the practice of actuarial prediction that policymakers, scholars and concerned citizens will have to fully consider.1;--John J. Donohue III, Leighton Homer Surbeck Professor of Law, Yale Law School
-- John J. Donohue III (08/28/2006)
"This is a creative, provocative, well-researched argument against current practice in sentencing, parole discrimination, and investigative profiling. Harcourt makes the case that a century of social science-inspired thinking about punishment and profiling should be cast out in favor of randomness. It is a position that will be dismissed by many as politically impractical, if not absurd. But that is often the immediate fate of revolutionary ideas."
--Jack Katz, University of California, Los Angeles (08/28/2006)
"In "Against Prediction, " Bernard Harcourt stresses that while the benefits of actuarial predictions have been widely touted, certain costs have been largely overlooked. Indeed, actuarial prediction can under some circumstances actually increase crime, and generate morally problematic social wounds on the profiled classes that might outweigh the benefits even if crime is reduced. Once again, Harcourt has challenged the conventional wisdom in criminal justice policy, and offered an indictment to the practice of actuarial prediction that policymakers, scholars and concerned citizens will have to fully consider."
--John J. Donohue III, Leighton Homer Surbeck Professor of Law, Yale Law School (08/28/2006)
"Bernard Harcourt has never had an uninteresting thought, or made an argument that does not provoke or engage or delight or enlighten or do all of those things simultaneously."
--Malcolm Gladwell (08/28/2006)"

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