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Table of Contents

Acknowledgements ix Introduction xi Chapter One Transformational Technologies 1 Futurists and Scientists Look into the Future 1 The Convergence of Technology and Biology 13 Chapter Two The Evolution of Medicine and the Emergence of Biopharma 23 From Atoms to Cells to Living Organisms 24 The History of the Pharmaceutical Industry 36 Chapter Three The Drug Industry ? Reinventing the Model 55 Big Pharma, Biopharma 59 Drug Patents 73 The Path to Riches: FDA Approval 79 In Summary 84 Chapter Four Curing Disease ? Promising Prospects in the Main Therapeutic Areas 87 Cancer ? Step by Step, Being Beaten 89 Infectious Diseases: New Antibiotics, Hepatitis and HIV Drugs Make for a Fast-growing Sector 107 Obesity and its Evil Sisters: Type 2 Diabetes and Kidney Disease 118 The Heart of the Matter ? Biggest Killer on the Prowl 128 Fading into the Night ? Neurodegeneration, Rheumatology and Multiple Sclerosis 132 Respiratory Disease ? New Drugs: A Breath of Fresh Air 143 Rare Diseases and Rare Profits 146 Drugs for Pain and for the Central Nervous System 150 The Best of the Rest ? Ophthalmology, Dermatology, Gastrointestinal and Bone Disease 153 Chapter Five Turning Back the Clock ? Stem Cells, Genomics, Gene Therapy and Regeneration 157 Stem Cells 166 Gene Therapy and Nano Medicine 170 Organ Growth in and out of the Body 178 Chapter Six Demographic Changes 181 The Working Age Labour Pool in the World is Shrinking 191 Can Immigration Solve the Labour Shortage in the Developed World? 193 The Social Impact of an Ageing Population 195 The United States is the Best Positioned Developed Country 196 Support Ratios Have Been Plummeting 197 China?s Grey Future 198 What Can Governments Do To Avoid Their Country Becoming a Nursing Home? 200 Chapter Seven Bioscience?s Disruptive Influences 205 Insurance and Healthcare 206 Real Estate 210 Politics 211 Geopolitics 211 Retail Goods and Services 212 The Food Industry 213 The Investment Industry 214 The Law 215 Shortage of Young People in Developed Nations 217 Chapter Eight Robotics and Nanotechnology 219 Robotics 219 Surgical Procedures/Surgical Assistance 220 Medical Monitor/Nurse 223 Housemaid/Domestic Assistance 228 Companion/Pet 229 Nanotechnology 232 Chapter Nine Lifestyle Maintenance 235 It?s a Fact: Obesity Shortens Your Life 235 Extending Life Expectancy 237 Common Traits of People who Live the Longest 239 A ?Cure? to Ageing 240 Telomeres ? Our Biological Clock 244 Chapter Ten Investment in Biopharma ? Chasing Those Money Fountains 247 Conservative Portfolio 279 Balanced Portfolio 280 Speculative Portfolio 281 Company Overviews 282 Summary 305 Glossary 315 Appendix ? Key Financial Charts of Big Pharma 325 References 327 Bibliography 329 Index 331

About the Author

Jim Mellon is an entrepreneur and former fund manager who made his fortune investing in emerging markets in the 1990s. He is the founder of several companies and remains the principle shareholder of Charlemagne Capital, the leading emerging market asset manager. He is a recognised expert in development economics and is? ranked 88th in The Sunday Times Rich List with an estimated ?500m.

Al Chalabi consults widely for multinational corporations on strategy, particularly in relation to technology. He is an entrepreneur who splits his time between Asia and the UK and has extensive experience in developing economics.

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