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Decision Analysis for Management Judgment

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Table of Contents

Foreword by Lawrence D. Phillips. Preface. Chapter 1 Introduction. Chapter 2 How people make decisions involving multiple objectives. Chapter 3 Decisions involving multiple objectives: SMART. Chapter 4 Decisions involving multiple objectives: Alternatives to SMART. Chapter 5 Introduction to probability. Chapter 6 Decision making under uncertainty. Chapter 7 Decision trees and influence diagrams. Chapter 8 Applying simulation to decision problems. Chapter 9 Revising judgments in the light of new information. Chapter 10 Heuristics and biases in probability assessment. Chapter 11 Methods for eliciting probabilities. Chapter 12 Risk and uncertainty management. Chapter 13 Decisions involving groups of individuals. Chapter 14 Resource allocation and negotiation problems. Chapter 15 Decision framing and cognitive inertia. Chapter 16 Scenario planning: an alternative way of dealing with uncertainty. Chapter 17 Alternative decision-support systems and conclusions. Suggested answers to selected questions. Index.

About the Author

Paul Goodwin is Professor of Management Science at the School of Management, University of Bath. His research interests focus on the role of management judgment in forecasting and decision-making and he has published in key journals in the field. He is an Associate Editor of the International Journal of Forecasting and a member of the editorial board of the Journal of Behavioural Decision Making . George Wright is Professor of Management at the Business School, Durham University. He is the founding Editor of the Journal of Behavioral Decision Making and an Associate Editor of two forecasting journals: International Journal of Forecasting and the Journal of Forecasting . He is also an Associate Editor of Decision Support Systems and a member of the editorial board of Journal of Multi-Criteria Decision Analysis.

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