Table of Contents

I: Approaches to Real-Life Situations: Problems of Improvement.- Editors’ Introduction.- Cognitive Processes and Societal Risk Taking.- Cognitive Processes and Societal Risk Taking/Comments.- The Use of Credible Intervals in Temperature Forecasting: Some Experimental Results.- Decisions Concerning Job Choice.- The Application of Multi-Attribute Utility Models to some Uncertain Decision Situations in Areas of Business and Public Policy.- Influence of Attribute Formulation on the Evaluation of Apartments by Multi-Attribute Utility Procedures.- Modelling Preferences among Distributions Using Fuzzy Relations.- Subjective Probability Elicitation: A Comparison of Performance Variables.- Rewarding Expertise in Probability Assessment.- The Psychology of the Ouija Board.- II: Analysis and Improvement of Models and Methods.- Editors’ Introduction.- Application of Multi-Attribute Utility Theory 165.- Applications of Multi-Attribute Utility Theory/Comments.- “Motivational” Components of Utility.- Methods for Aggregating Opinions.- Methods for Aggregating Opinions/Comments.- The Continuous Ranked Probability Score in Practice.- Calibration of Probabilities: The State of the Art.- Calibration of Probabilities: The State of the Art/Comments.- Consistency of Future Event Assessments.- A Study of Intransitive Preferences Using a Think Aloud Procedure.- III: Perspectives for Further Inquiry in Decision Theory.- Editors’ Introduction.- Measurement and Interpretation of Beliefs.- Measurement and Interpretation of Beliefs/Comments.- Decision Making and Cognition.- Decision Making and Cognition/Comments.- Cognitive Functions in Decision Making.- Optimal Policies, Degradation, and Cognition.- Optimal Policies, Degradation, and Cognition/Comments.- Decision Making and NumericalStructuring.- Bayesian Statistics and Efficient Information Processing Constrained by Probability Models.- Praxiology and Decision Theory.- Cultural Differences in Viewing Uncertainty and Assessing Probabilities.- Index of Names.