About the Author

Peter Turchin is a project leader at the Complexity Science Hub Vienna, a research associate at the University of Oxford, and an emeritus professor at the University of Connecticut. Trained as a theoretical biologist, he is now working in the field of historical social science that he and his colleagues call cliodynamics. Currently his main research effort is directed at coordinating CrisisDB, a massive historical database of societies sliding into crisis—and then emerging from it. His books include Ultrasociety and Ages of Discord.

Reviews

“In End Times: Elites, Counter-Elites, and the Path of Political Disintegration, Mr. Turchin offers a lucid and elegant theory that is stable across time and place in the manner of natural laws and scientific findings.” —Wall Street Journal

“Peter Turchin brings science to history. Some like it and some prefer their history plain. But everyone needs to pay attention to the well-informed, convincing and terrifying analysis in this book.” —Angus Deaton, winner of the Nobel Prize in Economics

“History is hopelessly complex and unpredictable’: so say most historians. If they were right, we would all be in deep trouble, helpless against a myriad of looming disasters. But Peter Turchin has pioneered a new science of making history predictable–by applying methods that had already succeeded in other complex fields. You’ll want to know what he sees lying ahead, and what we can do about it.” —Jared Diamond, Pulitzer-Prize-winning author of Guns Germs and Steel

“Arguably the most comprehensive explanation so far of the current and ongoing crisis of American politics . . . End Times [is] required reading for all who are serious about saving or redeeming American democracy.” —Salon

“Scintillating . . . Turchin’s elegantly written treatment looks beneath partisan jousting to class interests that cycle over generations, but also yields timely policy insights. It’s a stimulating analysis of antagonisms past and present, and the crack-up they may be leading to.” —Publishers Weekly (starred review)

“Peter Turchin provides a powerful synthesis of the historical forces that have brought American society to the dangerous ledge upon which it now teeters. With both clarity and methodological innovation, Turchin shows us on a grand scale why we must address wealth inequality in order to preserve democracy and our nation's political order.” —Admiral James Stavridis, USN (retired)

“A pre-eminent digital-age seer . . . a great collected narrative of human hope and human failure.” —Tim Adams, Observer

“Extraordinary . . . the culmination of many years of highly original and innovative work.” —Niall Ferguson, Bloomberg

“From the man who predicted the rise of Trump-or someone very like him-a remarkably clear, data-driven explanation of why societies fall into crisis, and how to engineer a soft landing.” —The Guardian Summer Reading