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Facing the Fold

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About the Author

Jay Ogilvy began his career teaching philosophy at Williams College and Yale University. In 1979 he joined Peter Schwartz at SRI International (formerly Stanford Research Institute), and then assisted Peter and the scenario team at Shell in the early 1980s. In 1987 Peter and Jay cofounded Global Business Network together with Stewart Brand, Napier Collyns, and Lawrence Wilkinson. Jay is the author or editor of eight books including Many Dimensional Man, and Creating Better Futures.


Jay Ogilvy is all but unique among philosophers in that his work meets Marx's oft-quoted challenge of not only interpreting the world, but changing it. Facing the Fold is a luminous distillation of philosophical wisdom and modern management theory. A richer, more readable introduction to the theory and practice of scenario planning does not exist. Robert W. Fuller Author of All Rise: Somebodies, Nobodies, and the Politics of Dignity, Jay Ogilvy has for decades been an intrepid pioneer in the development of both the practice and theory of scenario planning. This wonderful collection of his writings is therefore a most welcome and valuable contribution to the field. Adam Kahane, Reos Partners and University of Oxford, author of Power and Love: A Theory and Practice of Social Change Ogilvy delivers a dramatic advance in scenario thinking, transforming scenarios from mere tools to vehicles for deep discovery in the face of uncertainty. Facing the Fold will change forever the way one thinks about the future and the possibilities it holds. Paul Saffo, Managing Director, Foresight Discern Analytics More than ever, we need to be able to think clearly about the future. I can think of no better practitioner and theorist than Jay Ogilvy. I have had the great pleasure and learning experience of participating in several scenario workshops led by Ogilvy over the years-mind-stretching experiences that proved to be prophetic in hindsight. Howard Rheingold, author of Smart Mobs and Virtual Communities I have been working with scenarios since they were first introduced in Shell forty years ago. While Pierre Wack was my scenario guru, the most thoughtful guide to thinking scenarically about the future has undoubtedly been Jay Ogilvy, who learned how to think at the feet of Hegel. Napier Collyns, GBN Cofounder and formerly a colleague of Pierre Wack's at Shell

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