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The Fat Tail


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Table of Contents

Introduction Part 1: The Universe of Political Risks Chapter 1: Geopolitical Risks: Risks rising from great power rivalries and international wars Chapter 2: Terrorism: Risks arising from terrorist groups Chapter 3: Capital Markets: Risks from government's macroeconomic policies (defaults, capital controls) Chapter 4: Expropriations: Risks from a government's takeover of private property Chapter 5: Regulatory Risks from government's changing the rules of the game Chapter 6: Domestic instability: Risks from government weakness and potential for internal strife Chapter 7: Unknown Risks: "Black swans," "known unknowns" and events that cannot be necessarily conceived Part II: Analysis and Mitigation of Risks Chapter 8: Methodology and Social Sciences Chapter Chapter 9: Reporting of Risks Chapter 10: Mitigation of Risks Conclusion New Afterword for the Paperback Edition

About the Author

Ian Bremmer is the President of Eurasia Group and author of The J Curve: A New Way to Understand Why Nations Rise and Fall. He is a contributing editor for Foreign Policy and The National Interest. Preston Keat is Director of Research at Eurasia Group. He presently teaches at Columbia University's School of International and Public Affairs.


"The Fat Tail delivers practical wisdom on the impact of political risk on firms of every description and valuable advice on how to use it. Ian Bremmer and Preston Keat offer innovative thinking and useful insight that will help business decision-makers find fresh answers to questions they may not yet know they have."--Fareed Zakaria, best-selling author of The Post-American World "Political risk has become increasingly complex, and The Fat Tail provides a truly new way to quantitatively assess it in established and emerging markets. It is essential reading for any CEO with multinational interests."--Randall Stephenson, Chairman, CEO and President, AT&T Inc. "Bremmer and Keat are right: economics produces cycles and even crises, but it is politics that has the power to turn crises into profound and lasting dramas. Their book should be essential reading for anyone involved in international business even--perhaps especially--in places that seem politically stable."--Bill Emmott, editor-in-chief of The Economist 1996-2003 and author of Rivals "In an uncertain age in which everyone from individual investors and CEOs to journalists and heads of state seems at times to be grasping in the dark for insights to where we are heading, Ian Bremmer and Preston Keat have given us a unique roadmap, a forecasting toolkit that shines a light on our possible futures."--Robert Kagan, author of The Return of History and the End of Dreams "Wary of political risk and what it can do for you? Read this book which provides, replete with significant examples, how this growing art, with touches of science, can help you understand markets, investment climate, and the many changing economic circumstances impacted by critical political and security events around the world. Bremmer and Keat, both masters of this medium with many years experience, tell us how to understand political events and to gauge their impact on the critical business and economic decisions that many of us must make daily."--Thomas R Pickering, former Under Secretary of State for Political Affairs and US Ambassador to Jordan, Nigeria, El Salvador, Israel, the United Nations, India and Russia "Bremmer and Keat, executives at Eurasia Group, explore how global political risks influence the business world in this cogently argued analysis. The book details key areas corporations must be wary of in order to survive in the new global economy including foreign laws and regulation, government changes, civil unrest, expropriation, terrorism and war. With excellent examples, the authors demonstrate how planning for such political developments may make or break a company."--Publishers Weekly "In these times of heightened geopolitical risk, political knowledge has become a hard currency. Ian Bremmer and Preston Keat have made an important contribution to the world of risk mitigation and business continuity in The Fat Tail."--Muhtar Kent, President and Chief Executive Officer, The Coca-Cola Company "Ian Bremmer and Preston Keat have worked for years on the cutting edge of political risk management, and The Fat Tail provides us with a definite survey of the subject. It will be indispensible for global investors."--Nouriel Roubini, Professor of Economics and International Business, Stern School of Business, New York University 'Cogently argued....With excellent examples, the authors demonstrate how planning for political developments can make or break a company.'--Publishers Weekly

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