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Gold Bubble


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Table of Contents

Preface vii Disclaimer xiii CHAPTER 1 Why Gold? 1 Understanding Gold s Surge 1 Why the Gold Bugs Are Wrong 4 CHAPTER 2 Bubble Enablers and Precipitating Factors 5 Removal of the Fixed Price for Gold in 1968 5 Poor Market Performance and Capital Diversion 6 Uncertainty 7 Currency Troubles 8 Emerging Market Growth and Demand 8 Hard to Value 9 Introduction of Gold ETFs 9 Former UK Prime Minister May Be Responsible for Gold Bubble 9 Illusion of Safety 13 Conclusion 13 CHAPTER 3 Signs of a Gold Bubble 15 Parabolic Price Increases 15 Massive Publicity 21 Overspeculation 29 Extreme Expectations 45 Conclusion 56 CHAPTER 4 Gold Takes On ... 59 Deflation 59 Is Gold a Safe Haven During Recessions? 60 Gold versus Various Asset Classes: Ratio Analysis 63 Conclusion 65 CHAPTER 5 Price Analysis and Forecasts 67 Gold Bubble Anatomy: Is a Parabolic Spike Coming? 67 Gold s Place in History: Elliott Waves 70 Price Target for Gold Collapse 77 Fibonacci Time Relationships 79 Seasonality 81 Conclusion 83 CHAPTER 6 What Does Gold Depend On? 85 Herd Mentality in the Stock Market 86 Are We Headed for Another Great Depression? 88 Market Cycle Predicts Recession 97 The Dangers of ETFs 104 What about the Dollar? 117 Emerging Market Troubles 123 Middle East Upheaval 136 European Crisis 139 Conclusion 141 CHAPTER 7 Calling the Top: Signs of Reversal 143 Lagging Mining Stocks Signal Reversals in Gold and Silver Prices 143 Bernanke and Buffett Puzzled by Gold Rally 149 Dollar Strength and Market Weakness 150 Declining Momentum 151 Big Guys Selling: Smart Money Leads the Way 152 Is the Commodity Run-Up about to Reverse Course? 154 Has the Bubble Popped? 165 CHAPTER 8 Ways to Profit from the Collapse of the Gold Bubble 167 Short Gold 167 Short Gold Miners 168 Options Strategies 168 Short Rare-Earths 169 Betting on History: A Gold-Platinum Pair Trade 170 Forget Gold, Buy Diamonds 171 Buy Stocks Instead 176 Buy Physical Property, or Invest in Housing Stocks? 177 Conclusion 186 CHAPTER 9 Other Investment Land Mines to Avoid 187 Cloud Nine Computing: Sign of a Renewed Technology Bubble? 187 Betting against Facebook 193 Is IPO Mania Warning of a Tech Bubble 2.0? 206 Netflix: Setting Up for Disaster 213 Conclusion 231 Notes 235 About the Author 245 Index 247

About the Author

Yoni Jacobs , CMT, is Executive Director and Chief Investment Strategist for Chart Prophet LLC, an investment management company that utilizes its Perspective Outlook to make investment decisions based on a comprehensive mix of technical, fundamental, and behavioral analysis. A contributing author and Opinion Leader for Seeking Alpha , Jacobs has appeared on the Business News Network (BNN), CNN, and ABC News, and has been featured or quoted in Reuters, the Globe and Mail , the Financial Post , CBS MoneyWatch , and many other media outlets.

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