Tables, Figures, and Boxes Preface What's New? Acknowledgments Part I: The Process, the Participants, and the Product Chapter 1: Introduction Why Intelligence Fails What the Book Is About Summary Notes Chapter 2: Intelligence in the Age of Contested Norms and Persistent Disorder Nature of Twenty-First-Century Conflict Tools of Conflict The Function of Intelligence Summary Critical Thinking Questions Notes Chapter 3: The Intelligence Process The Traditional Intelligence Cycle Intelligence as a Target-Centric Process The Target Summary Critical Thinking Questions Notes Chapter 4: The Customer Overview of Customers Identifying the Customer Summary Critical Thinking Questions Notes Chapter 5: The Analyst Critical and Logical Thinking Objectivity Broad Perspective Good Instincts The Analyst's Role Analytic Teams Summary Critical Thinking Questions Notes Chapter 6: The Analytic Network The U.S. National Intelligence Network Homeland Security Military Law Enforcement Collaboration and Sharing Summary Critical Thinking Questions Notes Chapter 7: The Intelligence Product Intelligence Research Current Intelligence Indications and Warning What Should an Intelligence Unit Produce? Constraints on the Intelligence Product Summary Critical Thinking Questions Notes Part II: The Analysis Process Chapter 8: The Intelligence Issue Preliminary Questions Issue Definition Issue Decomposition Summary Critical Thinking Questions Notes Chapter 9: Target Models Modeling the Intelligence Target Some General Target Models Summary Critical Thinking Questions Notes Chapter 10: The Target Framework Creating a Target Framework Issue 1: Al-Shabaab Ideology Issue 2: Influencing Azerbaijan Issue 3: The Monopolitania BW Threat Alternative and Competitive Target Frameworks The Dynamic Framework Summary Critical Thinking Questions Notes Chapter 11: Analyzing Existing Intelligence Existing Finished Intelligence Sources of Raw Intelligence Evaluating Evidence Combining Evidence Structured Argumentation A Note about the Role of Information Technology Summary Critical Thinking Questions Notes Chapter 12: The Information Sources: Filling Gaps Interrelating the Issue Decomposition and Target Framework Identifying Gaps Developing the Collection Strategy Executing Collection Strategies Analyst-Collector Interaction Evaluating Collection Collection Requirements Summary Critical Thinking Questions Notes Chapter 13: Denial, Deception, and Signaling Denial Deception Defense against Denial and Deception: Protecting Intelligence Sources and Methods Countering Denial and Deception Signaling Summary Critical Thinking Questions Notes Chapter 14: Gaining Customer Acceptance Structuring the Message Presenting the Message Reviewing the Analytic Product Customer Interaction Analyst as Advocate: Getting Buy-In Aftermath: Dealing with Unexpected Outcomes Summary Critical Thinking Questions Notes Part III: Anticipatory Analysis and Modeling Chapter 15: Anticipatory Analysis: Forces Background Forces Synergy Causal Models Summary Critical Thinking Questions Notes Chapter 16: Anticipatory Analysis: Methodology Convergent and Divergent Phenomena The Estimative Approach Unintended Consequences Summary Critical Thinking Questions Notes Chapter 17: Outcome Scenarios Why Use Scenarios? Types of Scenarios Scenario Perspectives How to Construct Scenarios Summary Critical Thinking Questions Notes Chapter 18: Systems Modeling and Analysis Systems Analysis Methodology Performance Process Risk Cost Operations Research Summary Critical Thinking Questions Notes Chapter 19: Relationship Modeling and Analysis Link Models Network Models Network Analysis Summary Critical Thinking Questions Notes Chapter 20: Geospatial Modeling and Analysis Static Geospatial Models Dynamic Geospatial Models Summary Critical Thinking Questions Notes Chapter 21: Simulation Modeling Types of Simulations Creating and Running a Simulation Simulations Used in Intelligence Analysis Decision Modeling and Simulation Checking the Decision Model: Red Team Analysis Summary Critical Thinking Questions Notes Chapter 22: Case Study: A Tale of Two NIEs The Yugoslavia NIE The Iraqi Weapons of Mass Destruction NIE Critical Thinking Questions Notes List of Commonly Used Acronyms Index About the Author
Robert M. Clark has more than five decades of U.S. intelligence community experience. A USAF lieutenant colonel (retired), Dr. Clark served as an electronics warfare officer and intelligence officer. At the CIA, he was a senior analyst and group chief responsible for developing analytic methodologies. He was cofounder and CEO of the Scientific and Technical Analysis Corporation, a privately held company serving the U.S. intelligence community. Clark holds an SB from MIT, a PhD in electrical engineering from the University of Illinois, and a JD from George Washington University. Beyond analyzing wicked intelligence issues, his passion is writing on the topic of intelligence. His books include Intelligence Analysis: A Target-Centric Approach (5th edition, 2016), The Technical Collection of Intelligence (2010), and Intelligence Collection (2014). He is coauthor, with Dr. William Mitchell, of Target-Centric Network Modeling (2015) and Deception: Counterdeception and Counterintelligence (2019); and coeditor, with Dr. Mark Lowenthal, of Intelligence Collection: The Five Disciplines (2015). Dr. Clark also develops and teaches courses for audiences in academia, national intelligence, and the military. He currently serves as an adjunct professor at the Johns Hopkins University teaching graduate courses.
"[Intelligence Analysis] provides a very comprehensive and well organized depiction of the intelligence function; it is well written, straightforward, and readable; and the tables, figures, graphs and maps are all appropriate and supportive of the reader's understanding of the text because they clearly depict data and processes." -- Vincent Henry