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Let the Evidence Speak


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Table of Contents

IntroductionSection A. Likelihood1. Whose car?2. Bayes' Rule3. Track Record4. Game Show5. Margin of error6. Five thoughts about likelihoods

Section B. Base rate7. Diagnosis8. Information9. Being careful about base rates10. Independence11. ReviewSection C. Application12. Who Wrote That?13. Wood, Trees and Wildlife14. Radiocarbon dating15. Bayes and the Law16. The Selection TaskConclusionA formula for Bayes' RuleNotes

About the Author

Alan Jessop holds degrees in Civil Engineering and Computer Science. Before his current position as MBA Director at the Business School in Durham, UK, he worked as a transport planner in local government and as a consultant. Primarily teaching MBA students, he has lectured at the University of Westminster, UK, the University of Warwick, UK and at the European Business School near Frankfurt, Germany. Jessop's research focuses on multi-attribute decision-making and design patterns.

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