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Living with the Unexpected


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Table of Contents

1 Introduction.- 2 Theoretical Reflections.- 2.1 Complexity and Uncertainty.- 2.1.1 What Exactly is Complexity?.- 2.1.2 What is Uncertainty?.- 2.2 Resources and Uncertainty.- 2.3 Hazard Research and Complexity.- 2.4 Challenges to Geography.- 3 Strategic Planning as Methodical Consequence.- 3.1 What is Strategic Planning?.- 3.2 What are Scenarios?.- 3.3 Procedures of Scenario Planning.- 3.4 Potentials and Problems of Scenario Planning.- 3.5 Methodical Consequences for this Paper.- 4 Montserrat - A Complex System.- 4.1 Montserrat Before the Volcanic Crisis - Dealing with Uncertainty?.- 4.1.1 The Macro Level - Basic Structures.- 4.1.2 The Meso Level - Perceptions of the Gatekeepers, Plans and Strategies.- 4.1.3 The Micro Level - Perceptions of the Montserratians.- 4.1.4 Interactions Between the Levels.- 4.2 Montserrat During the Volcanic Crisis - Coping with Uncertainty.- 4.2.1 Chronology of the Volcanic Crisis.- 4.2.2 The Meso Level - Perceptions of Gatekeepers, Plans and Strategies.- 4.2.3 The Micro Level - Perceptions of the Montserratians.- 4.2.4 Interactions Between the Levels.- 5 Structuring the Future and Hazard Management - Scenarios as a Participative Planning Method for Reconstruction.- 5.1 Reconstruction Determined by Long-term Objectives.- 5.2 The Relevance of Participation.- 5.3 Scenarios in Hazard Management.- 6 Living on the Edge of a Volcano - Scenarios for Montserrat.- 6.1 A First Approach - Pre-Testing the Scenario Method.- 6.1.1 Phase I - Tasks and Influences.- 6.1.2 Phase II - Trend Projections and Clustering Alternatives.- 6.1.3 Phase III - Scenario Interpretation.- 6.1.4 Concluding Evaluation.- 6.2 Second Approximation - The Scenario Method in a Hazard Situation.- 6.2.1 Phase I - Utopias and Visions.- 6.2.2 Phase II - Draft Scenarios.- 6.2.3 Phase III - Options and Strategies.- 6.2.4 Final Evaluation.- 7 Living with the Unexpected - Perspectives for a Constructive Dealing with Complexity and Uncertainty.- References.

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