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acknowledgments xiii preface xv Chapter 1: technical analysis: Fuhgeddaboudit 1 Indicators: Pick One, Any One 3 1990 Another Opportunity Missed 6 Notes 9 Chapter 2: the Failure of technical efforts 11 A Lack of Analysis ... (Again) 13 The Advance/Decline Line: A Favorite Tool, but Why? 15 Volume? Another Important Indicator? Really? 20 Newsletters Once Upon a Time ... 23 Predicting Rain Doesn t Count; Building Arks Does 25 Technical Analysis Fails a Rigorous Test 28 Notes 30 Chapter 3: technicals: the Last Word 31 Topical Studies: An Introduction 33 Notes 36 Chapter 4: Wall Street: Games people play 37 A Brokerage Firm Can t Calculate Performance? 40 Mr. Prechter 42 Notes 47 Chapter 5: Money Flows: The Ultimate Indicator 49 Playing with Blocks 51 It Is Not How Often; It Is How Much 54 The SEC s Study on the Information from Large Trades 58 Wall Street Week: The Record 63 Apple Is a Buy at $3? 65 Mr. Market s Voice 71 Notes 73 Chapter 6: Anecdotal Data 75 Magazines and Newspapers Are Databases in Disguise 80 Dow Theory in Real Time 84 Magazine Covers Overrated 87 Note 87 Chapter 7: Always Cut the Cards 89 Strategists: More Marketing Than Markets 91 Stock Market Research: An Oxymoron 94 The Issue of CAPE: Cyclically Adjusted Price-Earnings Ratio 95 Strategists: One More Thing ... 97 What Do Stocks Really Return? 100 A Successful Model Except for Irrational Investors 102 The Press Should Be in the Reporting, Not Forecasting, Business 106 Notes 112 Chapter 8: DOW: 19,792? 115 Citibank (the Company) versus Citi (the Stock) 118 World War I: The Market Swoons, Oops, Rallies 120 The Dow Trades above 1,000 123 Notes 126 Chapter 9: That s Easy for You to Say! 129 BusinessWeek: 1998, 1999, and America Online 131 BEST: Real Time, Real Money, Real Results 134 Notes 136 Chapter 10: Playing the Game 137 Mr. Buffett Buys and Sells Silver 139 Bonds Can Go Down 143 Mr. Ellis: The Loser s Game 146 Wall Street Week: We Were Lucky (for Eight Years) 148 Money Managers Don t Get It? 149 Notes 154 Chapter 11: Have It Your Way 155 Weasel Words: Not Our Choice, but Know and Recognize 160 Chapter 12: The Market: Yesterday, Today, and Tomorrow? 163 Commissions Go Down; ERISA Changes the Rules 164 London s Big Bang: A Failure There, a Good Idea Here? 169 The Public versus All Others 173 High-Frequency Traders Get Billions, Brokers Prosper, but Are You Benefiting? 178 The Demise of the Japanese Market Was Structural 186 Notes 188 Chapter 13: Get Ready, Get Set ... 191 Tracking Sentiment, or, Keeping Score of the Players 195 Note 196 Chapter 14: Market Cycles and Rotation 197 How to Tell Whether We Are in the Eighth or Ninth Inning 201 Group Rotation Exists; It Is Random but Worth Understanding 204 Small Stocks: On Average, Yes, but ... 212 Growth versus Value: Advantage Growth, but ... 214 Notes 216 Chapter 15: The Economy and the Federal Reserve Board 217 GDP and the Market, No Surprises Here 218 The Fed Tightens: It Hurts Only for a Little While 221 1994: A Little Perspective, if You Please 225 1995: Economists Predict Because They Are Asked, but Why? 226 Note 228 Chapter 16: Picking Stocks 229 Seeds: Ideas to Get You Started, Planting, and Harvesting Come Later 232 Sprained Wrists Eventually Heal (and Prosper) 233 Capitulation: Another Example of the Anecdotal Process 237 Trend Charts: Late In, Early Out but Profitable and Comfortable 239 Note 245 Chapter 17: The Trading Day 247 The Morning after a Big Day 250 What Do Futures Tell Us? 253 It s 10:00 a.m.; Do You Know Where Your Stocks Are Going? 253 Chapter 18: Mind the Gap 265 After the Post?]Market Fall ... or Rally 267 Gaps Provide Opportunities and Have Some Tendencies, but None Written in Stone 270 Gaps Squared 272 Old Rule: Large Gaps Have to Be Closed New Rule: About 25 Percent 273 Chapter 19: You Must Remember This 277 It s Smart to Be Bearish, but Not Necessarily Profitable 279 You Can Never Know Too Much about Too Many Things on Wall Street 281 Notes 284 Chapter 20: Wall Street Week and Other Adventures 285 Salomon Brothers: The Bar Was High, Even for the Chef 287 Notes 289 Appendix A E xpansions/Recessions and Bull/Bear Markets 291 Appendix B Cost of Timing the Market 303 Dow Jones Return 303 Appendix C H istory of Regulation 307 Glossary 311 About the Author 315 About the Companion Website 317 Index 319
Laszlo Birinyi is the founder and President of Birinyi Associates, Inc. In 1976, he joined Salomon Brothers as the Head of Equity Market Analysis and developed the firm's weekly commentary, Stock Week . He has developed countless market tools, the most famous being the widely recognized Money Flows tool. In 1989, Birinyi began his own firm, Birinyi Associates, and served as Global Trading Strategist for Deutsche Bank Securities from 1998 to 2002. A frequent guest on business news shows and broadcasts, Birinyi has been inducted into the Wall $treet Week Hall of Fame and named one of Smart Money 's "Power 30" market movers. He holds degrees from the University of North Carolina at Chapel Hill and the New York University Stern School of Business Administration.