Contents: (Level 1)
Introduction (Level 1)
Chapter One: The Problem: Fateful Decisions in Uncertainty (Level
1)
A Global most likely Scenario (Level 2)
Russia: Working Authoritarianism (Level 3)
China: Strong State (Level 3)
Making Decisions in this most likely Future (Level 2)
Can we do better? (Level 2)
Chapter Two: Potential Applications: Historical Cases (Level 1)
The Disintegration of Yugoslavia (Level 2)
The Failure of the Doha Round of Trade Negotiations (Level 2)
The Terrorist Attacks of 9/11 (Level 2)
The US Invasion of Iraq (Level 2)
The Arab Spring (Level 2)
Obama Grand Strategy (Level 2)
The Syrian Civil War (Level 2)
Chapter Three: Value of Scenarios (Level 1)
What about Prediction? (Level 2)
Timing is almost everything (Level 2)
Beyond Timing: the Importance of Process (Level 2)
What's a good set of Scenarios? (Level 2)
Chapter Four: The Scenario Construction Process (Level 1)
Design of Scenario Process (Level 2)
Selecting Participants for Scenario Workshops (Level 2)
Pre-Workshop Research on Drivers of Change (Level 2)
Drivers Paper: (Level 2)
China 2020 (Level 3)
Ukraine 2020 (Level 3)
The Scenarios Process: Syria (Level 2)
How to Facilitate (Level 2)
Composing the Scenario Narrative (Level 2)
Some Lessons Learned (Level 2)
Traps (Level 2)
Chapter Five: Future Applications and Policy Process (Level 1)
Michael F. Oppenheimer is Professor for Global Affairs at the Center for Global Affairs of New York University's School of Professional Studies
"[Oppenheimer] reasons that as a diminished superpower, the United
States will not be able to suffer as many surprises or mistakes as
it has in the past. Washington is thus under pressure to better
anticipate and prepare for events even when prevention may prove
impossible. This is a reasonable pitch and a good way to motivate
the need for adding new tools to our policymaking kit."
-- Perspectives on Politics
"Constructs detailed scenarios that could plausibly take shape, by
starting with what is known about the current situation and then
imagining different ways in which events and decisions might
unfold... Oppenheimer makes a persuasive case that scenario
planning can
encourage more agility and flexibility in policymaking."
-- Foreign Affairs
"Foreign policy strategy requires planning for multiple scenarios,
imagining alternative futures, and facing up to risk. It also
involves a constant, honest, rigorous assessment of whether
existing policies are working - including how to adapt if they're
not. Michael Oppenheimer shows how to conduct precisely these kind
of assessments in his extremely useful new book, based on years of
practical experience. The result is a work that should prove
worthwhile
to policymakers and analysts - indeed anyone interested in
improving the quality of American foreign policy."
--Colin Dueck, Associate Professor, George Mason University School
of Policy, Government, and International Affairs.
"Michael Oppenheimer has written a comprehensive user guide to
scenario-based analysis. But Pivotal Countries, Alternate Futures
is also much more than that: a thoughtful plea for the systematic
application of methods that would help our policymakers lay bare
their underlying assumptions, improve their recognition of
unfolding trends, and, ultimately, better prepare the United States
for even the most unpredictable of world events."
--Daniel S. Markey, Senior Research Professor in International
Relations and Academic Director of the Global Policy Program at the
Paul H. Nitze School of Advanced International Studies, Johns
Hopkins University
"The only thing certain about the future is that it will surprise
us. This seminal work, by one of the pioneers in the field of
scenario analysis, offers a creative but disciplined way of
thinking about the future. It provides illuminating perspectives on
Russia, China, and other pivotal countries, along with a practical
guide for developing and applying scenarios to policy-making in a
complex world."
--Robert Hutchings, Dean, Lyndon B. Johnson School of Public
Affairs, the University of Texas at Austin
"To be secure in a rapidly changing world, America needs a better
balance between assertiveness and restraint in its global policies.
That balance can best be discovered by constructing careful
scenarios of future alternatives. Here is an invaluable guide for
using scenarios to test for strategic coherence and tactical
agility."
--James Hoge, former editor, Foreign Affairs
"In his latest work, Michael Oppenheimer addresses the crucial
weaknesses of American policy-making with a call for 'strategic
coherence and tactical agility'. Pivotal Countries, Alternate
Futures is a necessary how-to for practitioners operating at the
front lines of business and politics."
--Ian Bremmer, President, Eurasia Group and author of
Superpower
"Pivotal Countries, Alternate Futures will appeal to readers who
are interested in foreign policy decision making and, to a lesser
extent, those interested in the current debates about US grand
strategy."
--H-Net Reviews
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