Acknowledgments ix Introduction xi PART ONE ECONOMIC FORCES 1 Chapter 1 The Budget Deficit Drives the Growth of All Debt 3 Chapter 2 The Trade Deficit and U.S. Dependency on Foreign Investments 27 Chapter 3 The Big Costs of Health Care, Social Security, and the Military 63 PART TWO FINANCIAL CRISIS RESPONSE 75 Chapter 4 The Federal Reserve Prints Our Money (Stop the Presses!) 77 Chapter 5 The Importance of Debt for Predicting Our Economy 115 Chapter 6 The Big-Picture Model of Our Economy 139 PART THREE RECESSION OR DEPRESSION? 157 Chapter 7 What Can the 1929 Great Depression Teach Us about Today's Crisis? 159 Chapter 8 What the United States Can Learn from Japan's Lost Decade(s): 1989-2009 183 Chapter 9 What the United States Can Learn from German and Other European Hyperinflations, and from China Today 211 PART FOUR INVESTMENT OPPORTUNITIES 227 Chapter 10 The Stock Market May Be Dead for Another Decade 229 Chapter 11 Energy in the 21st Century: The End of the Petroleum Age 241 Chapter 12 Food, Grain Trading 261 Chapter 13 The Demise of the Dollar 273 Chapter 14 Interest Rates: The Trade of the Decade 299 Chapter 15 Gold Is the Only Real Money 325 PART FIVE PUTTING IT ALL TOGETHER 367 Chapter 16 Forecast for the Future 369 Chapter 17 Looking Over the Horizon to See the Best Investments 385 List of Tables and Figures 421 About the Author 429 Index 431
Bud Conrad is the Chief Economist at Casey Research and has been a futures investor for twenty-five years, as well as a full-time investor for more than a decade. He holds an MBA from Harvard and an electrical engineering degree from Yale. Conrad has held positions with IBM, CDC, Amdahl, and Tandem. His comprehensive picture of the world's economy, based on a career of using long-term fundamental analysis, enables him to explain how this crisis arose and where it will evolve to. He uses insights learned from his engineering training to interpret how investment cycles affect our economy. He served as a local board member of the National Association for Business Economics and taught graduate courses in investing at Golden Gate University. A popular speaker, Conrad has delivered talks in New Zealand, Dubai, New York, Vancouver, Denver, Phoenix, Las Vegas, San Francisco, Los Angeles, and Chicago. He has appeared on CNBC, Fox Business News, New Zealand 3news, and has commented in many publications from the Wall Street Journal to Reuters.