A ground-breaking new work on improving our ability to predict future events.
Philip Tetlock is Leonore Annenberg University Professor of
Psychology at the University of Pennsylvania. He is the author of
several books on politics and psychology, including Counterfactual
Thought Experiments in World Politics and the award-winning Expert
Political Judgment- How Good Is It? How Can We Know?
Dan Gardner is a journalist, author and lecturer. He is the
best-selling author of Future Babble- Why Expert Predictions Fail
and Why We Believe them Anyway and Risk- The Science and Politics
of Fear, which was published in 11 countries and 7 languages. He
lives in Ottawa, Canada.
The techniques and habits of mind set out in this book are a gift
to anyone who has to think about what the future might bring. In
other words, to everyone.
*Economist*
A terrific piece of work that deserves to be widely read . . .
Highly recommended.
*Independent*
This marvelous book tells an exciting story of ordinary people
beating experts in a very serious game. It is also a manual for
thinking clearly in an uncertain world. Read it.
*Daniel Kahneman*
Full of excellent advice – it is the best thing I have read on
predictions . . . Superforecasting is an indispensable guide to
this indispensable activity.
*The Times*
Philip Tetlock has transformed the science of prediction.
*Spectator*
The most important book on decision making since Daniel Kahneman's
Thinking, Fast and Slow.
*Wall Street Journal*
Fascinating and breezily written.
*Sunday Times*
Superforecasting is a fascinating book.
*Daily Mail*
Superforecasting is a very good book. In fact it is essential
reading.
*Management Today*
The best way to know if an idea is right is to see if it predicts
the future. But which ideas, which methods, which people have a
track record of non-obvious predictions vindicated by the course of
events? The answers will surprise you, and they have radical
implications for politics, policy, journalism, education, and even
epistemology – how we can best gain knowledge about the world. The
casual style of Superforecasting belies the profundity of its
message.
*Steven Pinker*
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