Part I Introduction 1 1 Introduction to Technical Analysis 3 2 The Basic Principle of Technical Analysis--The Trend 9 3 History of Technical Analysis 23 4 The Technical Analysis Controversy 33 Part II Markets and Market Indicators 55 5 An Overview of Markets 57 6 Dow Theory 75 7 Sentiment 89 8 Measuring Market Strength 131 9 Temporal Patterns and Cycles 163 10 Flow of Funds 177 Part III Trend Analysis 197 11 History and Construction of Charts 199 12 Trends--The Basics 223 13 Breakouts, Stops, and Retracements 255 14 Moving Averages 275 Part IV Chart Pattern Analysis 299 15 Bar Chart Patterns 301 16 Point-and-Figure Chart Patterns 335 17 Short-Term Patterns 359 Part V Trend Confirmation 405 18 Confirmation 407 Part VI Other Technical Methods and Rules 447 19 Cycles 449 20 Elliott, Fibonacci, and Gann 477 Part VII Selection 501 21 Selection of Markets and Issues: Trading and Investing 503 Part VIII System Testing and Management 527 22 System Design and Testing 529 23 Money and Risk Management 559 Part IX Appendices 579 A Basic Statistics 581 B Types of Orders and Other Trader Terminology 607 Bibliography 611 Index 637
Already the field's most comprehensive, reliable, and objective guidebook, Technical Analysis, Second Edition has been thoroughly updated to reflect the field's latest advances. Selected by the Market Technicians Association as the official companion to its prestigious Chartered Market Technician (CMT) program, this book systematically explains the theory of technical analysis, presenting academic evidence both for and against it. Using hundreds of fully updated illustrations, the authors explain the analysis of both markets and individual issues, and present complete investment systems and portfolio management plans. They present authoritative, up-to-date coverage of tested sentiment, momentum indicators, seasonal affects, flow of funds, testing systems, risk mitigation strategies, and many other topics. This edition thoroughly covers the latest advances in pattern recognition, market analysis, and systems management. The authors introduce new confidence tests; cover increasingly popular methods such as Kagi, Renko, Kase, Ichimoku, Clouds, and DeMark indicators; present innovations in exit stops, portfolio selection, and testing; and discuss the implications of behavioral bias for technical analysis. They also reassess old formulas and methods, such as intermarket relationships, identifying pitfalls that emerged during the recent market decline. For traders, researchers, and serious investors alike, this is the definitive book on technical analysis.
Charles D. Kirkpatrick II, CMT, is President, Kirkpatrick & Company, Inc., Kittery, Maine--a private firm specializing in technical research; editor and publisher of the Market Strategist newsletter. Adjunct Professor of Finance, Brandeis University International School of Business, Waltham, Massachusetts. Director and Vice President, Market Technicians Association Educational Foundation, Cambridge, Massachusetts--a charitable foundation dedicated to encouraging and providing educational courses in technical analysis at the college and university level. Past editor, Journal of Technical Analysis, New York, New York--the official journal of technical analysis research. Past director, Market Technicians Association, New York, New York--an association of professional technical analysts. In his life in the stock and options markets, Mr. Kirkpatrick has been a hedge fund manager, investment advisor, advisor to floor and desk traders and portfolio managers, institutional stock broker, options trader, desk and large-block trader, lecturer and speaker on aspects of technical analysis to professional and academic groups, expert legal witness on the stock market, owner of several small businesses, owner of an institutional brokerage firm, and part owner of a CBOE options trading firm. His research has been published in Barron's and elsewhere. In 1993 and 2001, he won the Charles H. Dow Award for excellence in technical research, and in 2009, he won the MTA award for his contributions to technical analysis. Educated at Phillips Exeter Academy, Harvard College (A.B.) and the Wharton School of the University of Pennsylvania (M.B.A.), he was also a decorated combat officer with the 1st Cavalry Division in Vietnam. He currently resides in Maine with his wife, Ellie, and their various domestic animals. Julie R. Dahlquist, Ph.D., received her B.B.A. in economics from University of Louisiana at Monroe, her M.A. in Theology from St. Mary's University, and her Ph.D. in economics from Texas A&M University. Currently, she is a senior lecturer, Department of Finance, at the University of Texas at San Antonio College of Business. Dr. Dahlquist is a frequent presenter at national and international conferences. She is the coauthor (with Richard Bauer) of Technical Market Indicators: Analysis and Performance (John Wiley & Sons). Her research has appeared in Financial Analysts Journal, Journal of Technical Analysis, Managerial Finance, Applied Economics, Working Money, Financial Practices and Education, Active Trader, and in the Journal of Financial Education. She serves on the Board of the Market Technicians Association Educational Foundation, on the editorial board of the Southwestern Business Administration Journal, and as a reviewer for a number of journals, including the Journal of Technical Analysis. She resides in San Antonio with her husband, Richard Bauer, and their two children, Katherine and Sepp.