Table of Contents

Preface

Introduction

1. Theory of Surprise

Part I: The Theory of Surprise Applied

2. Surprise at the Top of the World

3. Surprise and the Non-State Actor

4. Déjà Vu? Comparing Pearl Harbor and 9/11

Part II: Surprise and Deterrence Failure

5. The Balance of Power Paradox

6. Deterring the Weak: Problems and Prospects

Part III: Avoiding Surprise: Toward a New Intelligence Doctrine

7. Red Teaming Surprise

8. Indications and Warning in an Age of Uncertainty

9. From Combined Arms to Combined Intelligence: Philosophy, Doctrine and Operations

10. Conclusion

About the Author

James J. Wirtz is Professor and Dean of the School of International Graduate Studies at the Naval Postgraduate School Monterey, California, and author/editor of numerous books, including, most recently, Intelligence: The Secret World of Spies, 4th edition (ed., with Loch Johnson, 2015).

Reviews

'Warning of threats to the Republic before they occur is the most important of all the many intelligence duties---and the main reason why America spends a fortune each year trying to understand where dangers lurk in this complex and uncertain world. The warning responsibility places an understanding of intelligence failure directly at the heart of U.S. national security considerations. Only a handful of people in the world can address this subject with authority and deep insight; James J. Wirtz is one of them. In this gracefully written and absorbing volume, he makes a strong case for a greater synergism and integration of this nation's intelligence efforts as a means for reducing the likelihood of failure. This book is one of the "must reads" for anyone interested in intelligence and national security as we enter an era of growing nuclear threats and ongoing global terrorism.' -- Loch K. Johnson, University of Georgia, USA'This characteristically erudite and thought-provoking volume from one of the leading figures in both Intelligence Studies and Strategic Studies is required reading for those seeking to understand, and minimise the occurrence of, strategic surprise.' -- Mark Phythian, University of Leicester, UK'This book, a premier in the field, distinguishes itself by skillfully merging theory of strategic surprise with theory of coercion. Wirtz diagnoses the main pathologies in the art of intelligence, and offers the most innovative doctrinal solution to deal with them, for the age of uncertainty and instability. As such, the book takes theoreticians and practitioners of intelligence and strategy a quantum leap forward.' -- Dima Adamsky, Interdisciplinary Center (IDC) Herzliya, Israel'In this fascinating and absorbing account Professor Wirtz masterfully explores the interconnectedness between risk, intelligence, and warning. His clear analysis and identification of the lessons of the past make this essential reading for scholars, analysts and policy-makers alike.' -- Michael S. Goodman, King's College London, UK'Intelligence failure and surprise attacks are flip sides of the same coin, though all too frequently studied separately. In Understanding Intelligence Failure: Warning, Response, and Deterrence James J. Wirtz effectively integrates the two sides together by exploring how knowledge and power interact to improve our understanding of surprise in international affairs. In doing so, he makes a significant contribution to both intelligence studies and security studies by providing a holistic theory of surprise which explains the planning and implementation of surprise attacks as well as practical suggestions for what can be done to prevent them. Written in an easily digestible fashion, this insightful exposition of the dynamics that underlie surprise attack will provide much knowledge and insight for those interested in intelligence and security.' -- Stephen Marrin, James Madison University, USA