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Value Investing


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Table of Contents

Preface xi Foreword xvii PART I WHY EVERYTHING YOU LEARNED IN BUSINESS SCHOOL IS WRONG 1 1 Six Impossible Things before Breakfast, or, How EMH has Damaged our Industry 3 2 CAPM is Crap 19 3 Pseudoscience and Finance: The Tyranny of Numbers and the Fallacy of Safety 29 4 TheDangers of Diversification and Evils of theRelativePerformance Derby 39 5 The Dangers of DCF 47 6 Is Value Really Riskier than Growth? Dream On 57 7 Deflation, Depressions and Value 65 PART II THE BEHAVIOURAL FOUNDATIONS OF VALUE INVESTING 73 8 Learn to Love Your Dogs, or, Overpaying for the Hope of Growth (Again!) 75 9 Placebos, Booze and Glamour Stocks 85 10 Tears before Bedtime 93 11 Clear and Present Danger: The Trinity of Risk 105 12 Maximum Pessimism, Profit Warnings and the Heat of the Moment 113 13 The Psychology of Bear Markets 121 14 The Behavioural Stumbling Blocks to Value Investing 129 PART III THE PHILOSOPHY OF VALUE INVESTING 141 15 The Tao of Investing: The Ten Tenets of My Investment Creed 143 16 Process not Outcomes: Gambling, Sport and Investment! 165 17 Beware of Action Man 173 18 The Bullish Bias and the Need for Scepticism. Or, Am I Clinically Depressed? 181 19 Keep it Simple, Stupid 195 20 Confused Contrarians and Dark Days for Deep Value 205 PART IV THE EMPIRICAL EVIDENCE 215 21 Going Global: Value Investing without Boundaries 217 22 Graham's Net-Nets: Outdated or Outstanding? 229 PART V THE `DARK SIDE' OF VALUE INVESTING: SHORT SELLING 237 23 Grimm's Fairy Tales of Investing 239 24 Joining the Dark Side: Pirates, Spies and Short Sellers 247 25 Cooking the Books, or, More Sailing Under the Black Flag 259 26 Bad Business: Thoughts on Fundamental Shorting and Value Traps 265 PART VI REAL-TIME VALUE INVESTING 279 27 Overpaying for the Hope of Growth: The Case Against EmergingMarkets 281 28 Financials: Opportunity or Value Trap? 291 29 Bonds: Speculation not Investment 299 30 Asset Fire Sales, Depression and Dividends 309 31 Cyclicals, Value Traps, Margins of Safety and Earnings Power 315 32 The Road to Revulsion and the Creation of Value 325 33 Revulsion and Valuation 343 34 Buy When it's Cheap - If Not Then, When? 355 35 Roadmap to Inflation and Sources of Cheap Insurance 361 36 Value Investors versus Hard-Core Bears: The Valuation Debate 371 References 379 Index 383

About the Author

James Montier is a member of GMO's asset allocation team. Prior to that he was global strategist for Societe Generale and Dresdner Kleinwort. He has been the top rated strategist in the annual extel survey for most of the last decade. He is also the author of three other books ? Behavioural Finance (2000, Wiley), Behavioural Investing (2007, Wiley) and The Little Book of Behavioral Investing (Forthcoming, Wiley). James is a regular speaker at both academic and practitioner conferences, and is regarded as the leading authority on applying behavioural finance to investment. He is a visiting fellow at the University of Durham and a fellow of the Royal Society of Arts. He has been described as a maverick, an iconoclast, an enfant terrible by the press.


'Any disciple of value investing will benefit greatly from reading this book.' (UK, May 2011).

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