Table of Contents

Preface

1. Psychology Is Alive and Well (and Doing Fine Among the Sciences)

The Freud Problem

The Diversity of Modern Psychology

    Implications of Diversity

Unity in Science

What, Then, Is Science?

   Systematic Empiricism

    Publicly Verifiable Knowledge: Replication and Peer Review

    Empirically Solvable Problems: Scientists’ Search for Testable Theories

Psychology and Folk Wisdom: The Problem with “Common Sense”

Psychology as a Young Science

Summary

2. Falsifiability: How to Foil Little Green Men in the Head

Theories and the Falsifiability Criterion

    The Theory of Knocking Rhythms

    Freud and Falsifiability

    The Little Green Men

    Not All Confirmations Are Equal

    Falsifiability and Folk Wisdom

    The Freedom to Admit a Mistake

    Thoughts Are Cheap

Errors in Science: Getting Closer to the Truth

Summary

3. Operationism and Essentialism: “But, Doctor, What Does It Really Mean?”

Why Scientists Are Not Essentialists

    Essentialists Like to Argue About the Meaning of Words

    Operationists Link Concepts to Observable Events

    Reliability and Validity

    Direct and Indirect Operational Definitions

    Scientific Concepts Evolve

Operational Definitions in Psychology

    Operationism as a Humanizing Force

    Essentialist Questions and the Misunderstanding of Psychology

    Operationism and the Phrasing of Psychological Questions

Summary

4. Testimonials and Case Study Evidence: Placebo Effects and the Amazing Randi

The Place of the Case Study

Why Testimonials Are Worthless: Placebo Effects

The “Vividness” Problem

    The Overwhelming Impact of the Single Case

    The Amazing Randi: Fighting Fire with Fire

Testimonials Open the Door to Pseudoscience

Summary

5. Correlation and Causation: Birth Control by the Toaster Method

The Third-Variable Problem: Goldberger and Pellagra

    Why Goldberger’s Evidence Was Better

The Directionality Problem

Selection Bias

Summary

6. Getting Things Under Control: The Case of Clever Hans

Snow and Cholera

Comparison, Control, and Manipulation

    Random Assignment in Conjunction with Manipulation Defines the True Experiment

    The Importance of Control Groups

    The Case of Clever Hans, the Wonder Horse

    Clever Hans in the 1990s

    Prying Variables Apart: Special Conditions

    Intuitive Physics

    Intuitive Psychology

Summary

7. “But It’s Not Real Life!”: The “Artificiality” Criticism and Psychology

Why Natural Isn’t Always Necessary

    The “Random Sample” Confusion

    The Random Assignment Versus Random Sample Distinction

    Theory-Driven Research Versus Direct Applications

Applications of Psychological Theory

    The “College Sophomore” Problem

    The Real-Life and College Sophomore Problems in Perspective

Summary

8. Avoiding the Einstein Syndrome: The Importance of Converging Evidence

The Connectivity Principle

    A Consumer’s Rule: Beware of Violations of Connectivity

    The “Great-Leap” Model Versus the Gradual-Synthesis Model

Converging Evidence: Progress Despite Flaws

    Converging Evidence in Psychology

Scientific Consensus

    Methods and the Convergence Principle

    The Progression to More Powerful Methods

A Counsel Against Despair

Summary

9. The Misguided Search for the “Magic Bullet”: The Issue of Multiple Causation

The Concept of Interaction

The Temptation of the Single-Cause Explanation

Summary

10. The Achilles’ Heel of Human Cognition: Probabilistic Reasoning

“Person-Who” Statistics

Probabilistic Reasoning and the Misunderstanding of Psychology

Psychological Research on Probabilistic Reasoning

    Insufficient Use of Probabilistic Information

    Failure to Use Sample Size Information

    The Gambler’s Fallacy

    A Further Word About Statistics and Probability

Summary

11. The Role of Chance in Psychology

The Tendency to Try to Explain Chance Events

    Explaining Chance: Illusory Correlation and the Illusion of Control

    Chance and Psychology

    Coincidence

    Personal Coincidences

Accepting Error in Order to Reduce Error: Clinical Versus Actuarial Prediction

Summary

12. The Rodney Dangerfield of the Sciences

Psychology’s Image Problem

    Psychology and Parapsychology

    The Self-Help Literature

    Recipe Knowledge

Psychology and Other Disciplines

Our Own Worst Enemies

Isn’t Everyone a Psychologist? Implicit Theories of Behavior

The Source of Resistance to Scientific Psychology

The Final Word 

References

Author Index

Subject Index