A Note to the Reader
Acknowledgments
Prologue: An Inexorable Emergence
Before the next century is over, human beings will no longer be the
most intelligent or capable type of entity on the planet. Actually,
let me take that back. The truth of that last statement depends on
how we define human.
Part One: Probing the Past
Chapter One: The Law of Time and Chaos
For the past forty years, in accordance with Moore's Law, the power
of transistor-based computing has been growing exponentially. But
by the year 2020, transistor features will be just a few atoms
thick, and Moore's Law will have run its course. What then? To
answer this critical question, we need to understand the
exponential nature of time.
Chapter Two: The Intelligence of Evolution
Can an intelligence create another intelligence more intelligent
than itself? Are we more intelligent than the evolutionary process
that created us? In turn, will the intelligence that we are
creating come to exceed that of its creator?
Chapter Three: Of Mind and Machines
"I am lonely and bored, please keep me company." If your computer
displayed this message on its screen, would that convince you that
it is conscious and has feelings? Before you say no too quickly, we
need to consider how such a plaintive message originated.
Chapter Four: A New Form of Intelligence on Earth
Intelligence rapidly creates satisfying, sometimes surprising plans
that meet an array of constraints. Clearly, no simple formula can
emulate this most powerful of phenomena. Actually, that's wrong.
All that is needed to solve a surprisingly wide range of
intelligent problems is exactly this: simple methods combined with
heavy doses of computation, itself a simple process.
Chapter Five: Context and Knowledge
It is sensible to remember today's insights for tomorrow's
challenges. It is not fruitful to rethink every problem that comes
along. This is particularly true for humans, due to the extremely
slow speed of our computing circuitry.
Part Two: Preparing the Present
Chapter Six: Building New Brains...
Evolution has found a way around the computational limitations of
neural circuitry. Cleverly, it has created organisms who in turn
invented a computational technology a million times faster than
carbon-based neurons. Ultimately, the computing conducted on
extremely slow mammalian neural circuits will be ported to a far
more versatile and speedier electronic (and photonic)
equivalent.
Chapter Seven: ...And Bodies
A disembodied mind will quickly get depressed. So what kind of
bodies will be provide for our twenty-first-century machines? Later
on, the question will become: What sort of bodies will they provide
for themselves?
Chapter Eight: 1999
If all the computers in 1960 stopped functioning, few people would
have noticed. Circa 1999 is another matter. Although computers
still lack a sense of humor, a gift for small talk, and other
endearing qualities of human thought, they are nonetheless
mastering an increasingly diverse array of tasks that previously
required human intelligence.
Part Three: To Face the Future
Chapter Nine: 2009
It is now 2009. A $1,000 personal computer can perform about a
trillion calculations per second. Computers are imbedded in
clothing and jewelry. Most routine business transactions take place
between a human and a virtual personality. Translating telephones
are commonly used. Human musicians routinely jam with cybernetic
musicians. The neo-Luddite movement is growing.
Chapter Ten: 2019
A $1,000 computing device is now approximately equal to the
computational ability of the human brain. Computers are now largely
invisible and are embedded everywhere. Three-dimensional
virtual-reality displays, embedded in glasses and contact lenses,
provide the primary interface for communication with other persons,
the Web, and virtual reality. Most interaction with computing is
through gestures and two-way natural-language spoken communication.
Realistic all-encompassing visual, auditory, and tactile
environments enable people to do virtually anything with anybody,
regardless of physical proximity. People are beginning to have
relationships with automated personalities as companions, teachers,
caretakers, and lovers.
Chapter Eleven: 2029
A $1,000 unit of computation has the computing capacity of
approximately one thousand human brains. Direct neural pathways
have been perfected for high-bandwidth connection to the human
brain. A range of neural implants is becoming available to enhance
visual and auditory perception and interpretation, memory, and
reasoning. Computers have read all available human- and
machine-generated literature and multimedia material. There is
growing discussion about the legal rights of computers and what
constitutes being human. Machines claim to be conscious and these
claims are largely accepted.
Chapter Twelve: 2099
There is a strong trend toward a merger of human thinking with the
world of machine intelligence that the human species initially
created. There is no longer any clear distinction between humans
and computers. Most conscious entities do not have a permanent
physical presence. Machine-based intelligences derived from
extended models of human intelligence claim to be human. Most of
these intelligences are not tied to a specific computational
processing unit. The number of software-based humans vastly exceeds
those still using native neuron-cell-based computation. Even among
those human intelligences still using carbon-based neurons, there
is ubiqutous use of neural-implant technology that provides
enormous augmentation of human perceptual and cognitive abilities.
Humans who do not utilize such implants are unable to meaningfully
participate in dialogues with those who do. Life expectancy is no
longer a viable term in relation to intelligent beings.
Epilogue: The Rest of the Universe Revisited
Intelligent beings consider the fate of the universe.
Time Line
How to Build an Intelligent Machine in Three Easy Paradigms
Glossary
Notes
Suggested Readings
Web Links
Index
Ray Kurzweil is the author of the New York Times bestseller The Singularity Is Near and the national bestseller The Age of Spiritual Machines, among others. One of the leading inventors of our time, he won a Grammy Award for outstanding achievements in music technology in 2015 and was inducted into the National Inventors Hall of Fame in 2002. He is the recipient of many honors, including the National Medal of Technology and Innovation, the nation's highest honor in technology. He lives in Boston.
“The Age of Spiritual Machines will blow your mind. Kurzweil lays
out a scenario that might seem like science fiction if it weren’t
coming from a proven entrepreneur.”—San Francisco Chronicle
“From the arrowhead to the jackhammer, toolmakers like Kurzweil
have changed the world we live in. . . . This is a book for anyone
who likes to think about where current trends are taking
us.”—Christian Science Monitor
“Tantalizing—sometimes terrifying. . . . a welcome challenge to
beliefs we hold dear.”—Boston Globe
“Kurzweil’s broad outlook and fresh approach make his optimism hard
to resist.”—Kirkus Reviews
“This is a book for computer enthusiasts, science fiction writers
in search of cutting-edge themes and anyone who wonders where human
technology is going next.”—The New York Times
With the coming of the millennium, there is no shortage of predictions about what the next century will hold. Inventor, computer scientist, and futurist Kurzweil (The Age of Intelligent Machines, LJ 6/1/91) has produced a vision of the 21st century in which he predicts that a $1000 personal computer will match the computing speed and capacity of the human brain by around the year 2020. But Kurzweil does more than simply prognosticate about the future‘he provides a blueprint for the next stage of human evolution, in which we will begin to develop computers more intelligent than ourselves. Then we must ask ourselves whether these new thinking machines are indeed conscious entities. This superb work is a thoughtful melding of technology, philosophy, ethics, and humanism. Highly recommended. [Previewed in Prepub Alert, LJ 9/15/98; for several years, Kurzweil wrote a column for LJ called "The Futurecast."‘Ed.]‘Joe J. Accardi, Northeastern Illinois Univ. Lib., Chicago
"This is a book for anyone who wonders where human technology is going next".
-- The New York Times Book Review
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