Table of Contents

Illustrations xi Tables xiii Preface xv Abbreviations xix PART I Chapter 1: Introduction 3 Two Questions 6 Methods of Analysis 12 Chapter 2: Th e Rise of a New Norm 16 The Changing Normative Environment 21 Contestation 23 Increased Supply and Demand 26 The Popularization of Monitoring 28 Monitoring Today: Organizational Variation 34 Summary 41 Chapter 3: Th e Shadow Market 43 Disagreements about Contested Elections 47 Who Invites Whom? 54 Discussion 56 Chapter 4: What Infl uences Monitors' Assessments? 59 Analyzing Summary Monitor Assessments 60 Five Types of Bias 63 Discussion 75 Chapter 5: Do Politicians Change Tactics to Evade Criticism? 77 What Constitutes Evidence of a Monitor- Induced Shift ? 78 What Are the Safer Forms of Cheating? 80 Data: Th e Varieties of Irregularities 82 The Record 84 Discussion 92 PART II Chapter 6: International Monitors as Reinforcement 97 Altering Incentives to Cheat 99 Altering Domestic Conditions 104 If It Works, When Should It Work? 107 Summary 109 Chapter 7: Are Monitored Elections Better? 112 Measures of Election Quality 112 An Overview of the Record 115 Statistical Analysis 121 Discussion 129 Chapter 8: Long- Term Eff ects 131 Selection of Countries and Method of Analysis 133 Do International Monitors Improve Elections Over Time? 136 When Do Countries Follow the Recommendations of International Monitors? 141 Discussion 151 Conclusion: The Good, the Bad, and the Ugly 155 Do Monitors Assess Elections Accurately and Objectively? 156 Do Monitors Improve the Quality of Elections? 166 Closing Th oughts 176 Appendix A: Data Description 181 Two Datasets 181 Variables 184 Appendix B: Statistical Supplement to Chapter 3 195 Appendix C: Statistical Supplement to Chapter 4 197 Dependent Variable 197 Analysis 197 Appendix D: Statistical Supplement to Chapter 7 199 with Mark Buntaine Additional Description of Matching Process 199 Appendix E: Case Summaries 211 with Kiril Kolev Albania: Th e Importance of Leverage 211 Armenia: Paper Compliance 214 Bangladesh: Slowly but Surely? 218 Bulgaria: Motivated but Slow 221 El Salvador: International Meddling for Both Good and Bad 223 Georgia: Not So Rosy 228 Guyana: Uphill Battle 232 Indonesia: A Sluggish Behemoth 237 Kenya: One Step Forward, Two Steps Back 242 Lesotho: Deadlock 245 Mexico: Constructive Engagement 247 Nicaragua: Excessive Meddling and Deal Making 252 Panama: Both a Will and a Way 256 Russia: Goliath Beats David 258 South Africa: Remarkably Unremarkable 261 Notes 265 References 293 Index 321

About the Author

Judith G. Kelley is associate professor of public policy and political science at Duke University. She is the author of "Ethnic Politics in Europe: The Power of Norms and Incentives" (Princeton).

Reviews

Co-Winner of the 2013 Chadwick F. Alger Prize, International Studies Association "Monitoring Democracy is an impressive attempt to assess the success of international election monitoring by systematically comparing several hundred monitoring missions across the globe... [Kelley] also offers extensive concrete suggestions for improving monitoring in the future. This book addresses a major gap in the literature, in which there are numerous individual case studies but little serious comparative work. It is, therefore, mandatory reading for election monitoring professionals and for scholars doing research in that area."--Choice "Monitoring Democracy provides an insightful analysis of a topic of utmost policy relevance. Kelley carefully considers confounding factors, selection problems and possible biases in the data. The book touches on many interesting questions, and even offers advice to practitioners. The data work is impressive, both in terms of the codification of monitors' reports and the number of case-studies."--Karina Cendon Boveda, International Affairs "Kelley has produced a fine piece of scholarship that should be required reading for scholars interested in democracy promotion, as well as practitioners. The analysis is careful, broad, and admirably conversant in the details of specific countries and elections... One of her greatest contributions is the associated data set, which is publicly available and codes for both the characteristics of the monitoring missions and their detailed evaluations. Hence, interested researchers are amply supplied with the theoretical and empirical tools to build on Kelley's work."--Michael K. Miller, Perspectives on Politics