Preface and Acknowledgements 1
1 Introduction and Overview: Judgments, Decisions, and Rationality 2
2 The Nature and Analysis of Judgment 8
3 Judging Probability and Frequency 18
4 Judgmental Distortions: The Anchoring-and-Adjustment Heuristic and Hindsight Bias 32
5 Assessing Evidence and Evaluating Arguments 40
6 Covariation, Causation, and Counterfactual Thinking 54
7 Decision Making under Risk and Uncertainty 64
8 Preference and Choice 78
9 Confidence and Optimism 92
10 Judgment and Choice over Time 106
11 Dynamic Decisions and High Stakes: Where Real Life Meets the Laboratory 118
12 Risk 132
13 Decision Making in Groups and Teams 146
14 Cooperation and Coordination 160
15 Intuition, Reflective Thinking, and the Brain 174
Appendix 188
References 189
Sources and Credits 209
Author Index 211
Subject Index 219
David Hardman has taught judgment and decision making at London Metropolitan University since 1998, where he is Principal Lecturer for Learning Development. He is co-editor of Thinking: Psychological Perspectives on Reasoning, Judgment, and Decision Making, and is an Associate Editor for the Journal of Economic Psychology.
"A refreshingly accessible text that explores the wide variety of ways people make judgements." (The Psychologist, January 2009)
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