Table of Contents

The Introduction of the Concept of Expectation: Comments on Pascal (1654).- The First Formal Test of Significance: Comments on Arbuthnott (1710).- Coincidences and the Method of Inclusion and Exclusion: Comments on Montmort (1713), N. Bernoulli (1713), and de Moivre (1718).- On the Game of Thirteen.- Letter from Nicholas Bernoulli to Montmort on the Game of Thirteen, reproduced in Montmort (1713, p. 301).- The Doctrine of Chances, Problem XXV.- The Determination of the Accuracy of Observations: Comments on Gauss (1816).- The Determination of the Accuracy of Observations.- The Introduction of Asymptotic Relative Efficiency: Comments on Laplace (1818).- On the Probability of Results Deduced by Methods of any Kind from a Large Number of Observations.- The Logistic Growth Curve: Comments on Verhulst (1845).- Mathematical Investigations on the Law of Population Growth.- Goodness-of-Fit Statistics: The Distributions in Normal Samples of (a) the Sum of Squares About the Population Mean, (b) the Circular Sum of Squares of Successive Differences, and (c) the Circular Serial Correlation Coefficient: Comments on Abbe (1863).- On the Conformity-to-a-Law of the Distribution of Errors in a Series of Observations.- The Distribution of the Sample Variance Under Normality: Comments on Helmert (1876b).- The Calculation of the Probable Error from the Squares of the Adjusted Direct Observations of Equal Precision and Fechner’s Formula.- The Random Walk and Its Fractal Limiting Form: Comments on Venn (1888).- Estimating a Binomial Parameter Using the Likelihood Function: Comments on Thiele (1889).- Yule’s Paradox (“Simpson’s Paradox”): Comments on Yule (1903).- Beginnings of Extreme-Value Theory: Comments on Bortkiewicz (1922a) and von Mises (1923).- Range and Standard Deviation.-On the Range of a Series of Observations.- The Evaluation of Tournament Outcomes: Comments on Zermelo (1929).- The Evaluation of Tournament Results as a Maximization Problem in Probability Theory.- The Origin of Confidence Limits: Comments on Fisher (1930).- Appendix A. English Translations of Papers and Book Extracts of Historical Interest.- Appendix B. First (?) Occurrence of Common Terms in Statistics and Probability.- Name Index.

Reviews

From the reviews: MATHEMATICAL REVIEWS "The book will be a useful addition to libraries and to the collections of those with a special interest in the history of statistical science." CHOICE MAGAZINE "David (Iowa State Univ., Ames) and Edwards (Gonville & Caius College, UK) offer an interesting general historical book treating some aspects of the statistical literature. Because of increasing interest in historical development of probability and statistics, numerous good books and journal papers have appeared that either discuss such developments over a certain period or introduce certain specified and particular topics. This book provides access to some contributions neglected earlier, due either to lack of translation or to renewed interest. The origins of the following statistical concepts are included in the compilation: expectation, test of significance, accuracy of observations, coincidences and the inclusion and exclusion technique, asymptotic relative efficiency, logistic growth curve, goodness-of-fit statistics, distribution of sample variance from a normal population, random walk, estimating a binomial parameter by using likelihood functions, extreme-value theory, tournament outcomes, and confidence limits. Appendixes with short list of collected papers and source books cited; first occurrence of terms commonly used in statistics/probability; useful name and subject indexes; lists of references. The authors have done a great job in taking this task of filling the gaps in the historical introduction into literature of some statistical concepts, and this work will interest all engaged in studying or researching the history of statistics/probability. Highly recommended. Upper-division undergraduates through faculty. SHORT BOOK REVIEWS "Each article is introduced by an essay called ‘Comments on…’; these comments are informative, interesting and beautifully written, and contains numerous modernconnected references. The production is first class…The collection is fun to browse. Statistics history buffs and browsers should order this book immediately." "If you enjoy the history of statistical and probabilistic ideas, you will enjoy this interesting book. It makes good reading … . This book is a useful addition to the literature on this increasingly popular subject, and I particularly recommend it to graduate students in statistics. There are many ideas that we think of as essentially modern but that have a long history. This book provides interesting background on quite a few of them." (William E. Strawderman, Journal of the American Statistical Association, 2004) "This book contains ‘a selection of pioneering papers or extracts ranging from Pascal (1654) to R. A. Fisher (1930)’ … . The authors present a fascinating collection of articles. The accompanying commentaries are well written, easy to read and very instructive. … The book may be used as part of a course on the history of statistics or by lecturers wishing to provide a historical context … . It is also pleasurable recreational reading. I would recommend that libraries purchase a copy." (Paul Northrop, Journal of Applied Statistics, Vol. 30 (1), 2003) "This book contains … seminal papers, translated into English where necessary, and prefaced by a commentary. In all there are seventeen articles, taken in chronological order, with publication dates spanning nearly three centuries. … The book will be a useful addition to libraries and to the collections of those with a special interest in the history of statistical science." (C. C. Heyde, Mathematical Reviews, Issue 2002 e)