Table of Contents

Foreword Lawrence D. Phillips.Preface.Chapter 1: Introduction.Chapter 2: How people make decisions involving multiple objectives.Chapter 3: Decisions involving multiple objectives: SMART.Chapter 4: Introduction to probability.Chapter 5: Decision making under uncertainty.Chapter 6: Decision trees and influence diagrams.Chapter 7: Applying simulation to decision problems.Chapter 8: Revising judgments in the light of new information.Chapter 9: Biases in probability assessment.Chapter 10: Methods for eliciting probabilities.Chapter 11: Risk and uncertainty management.Chapter 12: Decisions involving groups of individuals.Chapter 13: Resource allocation and negotiation problems.Chapter 14: Decision framing and cognitive inertia.Chapter 15: Scenario planning: an alternative way of dealing with uncertainty.Chapter 16: The analytic hierarchy process.Chapter 17: Alternative decision-support systems.Suggested answers to selected questions.Index.

About the Author

Paul Goodwin is Senior Lecturer in Management Science in the Management School at the University of Bath. His research interests focus on the role of management judgment in forecasting and decision-making, and he has published in key journals in the field. He is an Associate Editor of the International Journal of Forecasting and a member of the editorial board of the Journal of Behavioral Decision Making. He has consulted with firms such as British Telecom and South Western Electricity. George Wright is a psychologist with an interest in the role and validity of judgment in decision making and forecasting. He is especially interested in the use of management science- and behaviorally-based methods to improve decision-making. He has published in key journals, and is the Editor of the Journal of Behavioral Decision Making. He has consulted with firms such as IBM, ICL, NEC, Petronas, Jordan Ministry of Planning, and the Scottish Football Association.