Acknowledgments xxv
About the Authors xxvii
Part I: Introduction 1
Chapter 1: Introduction to Technical Analysis 3
Chapter 2: The Basic Principle of Technical Analysis–The Trend 9
Chapter 3: History of Technical Analysis 21
Chapter 4: The Technical Analysis Controversy 31
Part II: Markets and Market Indicators 53
Chapter 5: An Overview of Markets 55
Chapter 6: Dow Theory 73
Chapter 7: Sentiment 85
Chapter 8: Measuring Market Strength 125
Chapter 9: Temporal Patterns and Cycles 155
Chapter 10: Flow of Funds 169
Part III: Trend Analysis 189
Chapter 11: History and Construction of Charts 191
Chapter 12: Trends–The Basics 215
Chapter 13: Breakouts, Stops, And Retracements 247
Chapter 14: Moving Averages 271
Part IV: Chart Pattern Analysis 299
Chapter 15: Bar Chart Patterns 301
Chapter 16: Point-and-Figure Chart Patterns 341
Chapter 17: Short-Term Patterns 365
Part V: Trend Confirmation 409
Chapter 18: Confirmation 411
Part VI: Other Technical Methods and Rules 453
Chapter 19: Cycles 455
Chapter 20: Elliott, Fibonacci, and Gann 485
Part VII: Selection 509
Chapter 21: Selection of Markets and Issues: Trading and Investing 511
Part VIII: System Testing and Management 537
Chapter 22: System Design and Testing 539
Chapter 23: Money and Risk Management 571
Part IX: Appendices 591
Appendix A: Basic Statistics 593
Appendix B: Types of Orders and Other Trader Terminology 621
Bibliography 625
Index 645
Now, there's a comprehensive, objective, and reliable tutorial and reference for the entire field of technical analysis. For traders, researchers, and serious investors alike, this is the definitive book on technical analysis. Individual investors and professional investment managers are increasingly recognizing the value of technical analysis in identifying trading opportunities. Moreover, the SECs requirement for analysts and brokers to pass Section 86 exams can now be fulfilled with the Chartered Market Technician (CMT) certification. Author Charles D. Kirkpatrick II has spent decades using technical analysis to advise major investing institutions -- and he currently teaches the subject to MBA candidates, giving him unique insight into the best ways of explaining its complex concepts. Together with university finance instructor and CMT Dr. Julie Dahlquist, Kirkpatrick systematically explains the theory of technical analysis, presenting academic evidence both for and against it. Using 200+ illustrations, the authors explain the analysis of markets and individual issues, and present a complete investment system and portfolio management plan. Readers will learn how to use tested sentiment, momentum indicators, seasonal affects, flow of funds, and many other techniques. The authors reveal which chart patterns and indicators have been reliable; show how to test systems; and demonstrate how technical analysis can be used to mitigate risk.
Charles D. Kirkpatrick II, CMT, is president of Kirkpatrick & Company, Inc., a technical analysis research firm. He has appeared on CNBC and Wall Street Week, and has been quoted in Barron’s, Money, and BusinessWeek. An instructor in finance at the School of Business Administration, Fort Lewis College, he is a two-time winner of the Market Technicians Association’s prestigious Charles H. Dow Award for research in technical analysis. He is a Chartered Market Technician, a member of the board of directors of the Market Technicians Association and the Market Technicians Association Educational Foundation, and editor of the Journal of Technical Analysis. He is a graduate of both Harvard (AB) and the Wharton School (MBA).
Julie R. Dahlquist, Ph.D., received her B.B.A. in economics from University of Louisiana at Monroe, her M.A. in theology from St. Mary’s University, and her Ph.D. in economics from Texas A&M University. Currently, she is a senior lecturer, Department of Finance, at the University of Texas at San Antonio College of Business. Dr. Dahlquist serves on the UTSA Executive-MBA faculty and is a frequent presenter at national and international conferences. She is the coauthor (with Richard Bauer) of Technical Market Indicators: Analysis and Performance (John Wiley & Sons, 1999). Her research has appeared in Financial Analysts Journal, Journal of Technical Analysis, Managerial Finance, Applied Economics, Working Money, Financial Practices and Education, and the Journal of Financial Education. She serves on the board of the Market Technicians Association Educational Foundation, on the editorial board of the Southwestern Business Administration Journal, and as a reviewer for a number of journals, including the Journal of Technical Analysis.
"Will tell readers pretty much everything they need to know about technical analysis." The FT October 2006
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