1. Introduction; 2. Demography and economics; 3. The constraints of history; 4. Comparative economics: the Arab world, East Asia and South America; 5. Egypt: the submerged giant?; 6. Iraq: after destruction; 7. Jordan: from rents to market?; 8. Morocco: reforms that did not cure; 9. Palestine: the making and unmaking of a state; 10. Saudi Arabia: oil wealth and unemployment; 11. Syria: lost potential; 12. Tunisia: unhappy leader; 13. Conclusions: the Arab equilibrium.
This book examines the relationship between demographic growth and economic development in eight Arab countries.
Paul Rivlin is the author of three books: The Dynamics of Economic Policy Making in Egypt (1985), The Israeli Economy (1992) and Economic Policy and Performance in the Arab World (2001), as well as numerous monographs, papers, contributions to books, and reports on economic development in the Middle East and on international energy markets, defence, and trade economics. Educated at Cambridge, Harvard and London universities, he taught undergraduate and graduate courses on Middle East Economics at Tel Aviv and Ben Gurion universities and has been a Visiting Professor of Economics at Emory University. He has lectured in the United States, China, India, Japan and Europe.
'Rivlin's analysis of the Arab economies is the most thorough and
astute available today, offering exceptional insights into the
interactions of history, politics, and economics across the region.
Rivlin focuses our attention on how the Arab world has squandered
the 'demographic gift' of a rapidly growing work force and
shrinking portion of dependents. He shows how political
conservatism has not only been supported by oil revenues and
remittances, it has blocked the reforms needed to promote modern
education and rapid industrialization. As a result, rapid labor
force growth has not been a source of rising productivity, but of
rising unemployment, political restiveness, and radicalism.' Jack
A. Goldstone, George Mason University
'Rivlin's book is a must-read for anyone seeking to understand the
causes and consequences of the poor economic performance of the
Arab economies. It presents a coherent and comprehensive analysis
of the economic, social, and political factors that hinder economic
development and prevent political changes in this important part of
the world.' Avner Greif, Stanford University
'Once home to major commercial centers, the Arab world is now a
minor player in the world economy. In this nicely crafted book,
Paul Rivlin lays out the relevant facts and figures with close
attention to variations across countries. He also offers a bold
interpretation that centers on institutions, demographic trends,
and constraints rooted in religion. The research is imaginative and
the synthesis both original and provocative.' Timur Kuran, Duke
University
'Rivlin skillfully addresses in comparative context the vital issue
of how Arab political economies are dealing with their 'youth
bulge.' His investigation of their failure adequately to capitalize
on this potential human resource asset sheds valuable new light on
both this specific topic and the more general one of Arab economic
development.' Robert Springborg, Naval Postgraduate School,
Monterey
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