Table of Contents

1 China's Watershed 1 2 The Political Trap 28 3 Inflection Point 53 4 Behind the Dream 78 5 Why China Will Not Dominate the 21st Century 101 Further Reading 127 Notes 131

About the Author

Jonathan Fenby is a former editor of the Observer and South China Morning Post and a founding partner and Managing Director of Trusted Sources Research Service. He is an author of several popular books on China, including the acclaimed Tiger Head, Snake Tails (2013) and The Penguin History of Modern China (2009).

Reviews

"A very readable and plausible take on why China will notdominate the twenty-first century." International Affairs "Leading China commentator Jonathan Fenby s latest book onChina's position in the world offers a nuanced picture of thecountry's strengths and weaknesses." China Daily "Fenby understands to its deepest roots the nature of ChineseCommunist Party rule and its effect throughout society. The Partywill, therefore, hate his eloquent and merciless dissection of itsentire record and performance. But readers new to China shouldstart right here." Jonathan Mirsky, Times Higher Education "An excellent summary of the broad spectrum of very seriousissues China faces in the immediate future." Fraser Howie, author of Red Capitalism: The FragileFinancial Foundation of China's Extraordinary Rise "The development of any country is accompanied by twists andturns. This book is a reminder that it is still too early toposition the world at the dawn of a Chinese century." Global Times "Fenby's concise, yet comprehensive, essay should be the firstthing read by anyone with an interest - business, political, orintellectual - in the future of China." Charles Horner, Senior Fellow, Hudson Institute "An excellent, current guide to the challenges and dangers aheadfor modern China. It describes, with verve and insight, why the'China Dream' may lead to a chilly awakening. Fenby, a delightfulwriter, explains why China will not dominate the 21st century, withcompelling critiques and a sharp, clear summary of its economic andpolitical challenges." Robert B. Zoellick, former president of the World Bank Group,U.S. Trade Representative, and U.S. Deputy Secretary ofState "Jonathan Fenby offers a well-informed and balanced assessment ofChina's past and prospects, recognising its remarkable economicachievements but also noting the huge economic, social andpolitical challenges it confronts. China will not, he concludes,dominate the world in the 21st century. He is almost certainlyright." Martin Wolf, Chief Economics Commentator, the FinancialTimes "A smart, wise, well written essay which answers with much commonsense and learning one of the biggest questions of our time." Chris Patten "An excellent summary of the broad spectrum of very serious issuesChina faces in the immediate future." Fraser Howie, author of Red Capitalism: The Fragile FinancialFoundation of China's Extraordinary Rise "In this brief but thought-provoking book, acclaimed Chinaspecialist Jonathan Fenby challenges and punctures a number ofmyths about China's rise and offers valuable insights its currentdilemmas and unpredictable future. A stimulating 'must read' forall observers of the China scene." David Shambaugh, George Washington University and the BrookingsInstitution "Jonathan Fenby has managed a highly impressive feat: within ashort and elegant text, he has pinpointed the real challengesfacing China today if it is truly to become a global actor thatwill play a serious role in the coming century. The insights giveus a road-map for what we might expect from this superpower in themaking. A compelling and essential read from a premier Chinaanalyst." Rana Mitter, author of China's War with Japan, 1937-1945: TheStruggle for Survival "China is a bubble in multiple ways - not least in the way itssupposed never-ending rise is interpreted and understood in thewest. Jonathan Fenby shows courage and insight in pricking thebubble in this important book." Will Hutton "Fenby's thoughtful, balanced analysis of what China has achieved,how it has done so, and the challenges ahead is an excellentcorrective to the surfeit of overly laudatory and excessively direassessments of China's future and its implications for theworld." Thomas Fingar, Stanford University "In this spirited and insightful book, Jonathan Fenby takes on theChina bulls with a clear-eyed look at China s dysfunctionalpolitical system, which does not appear up to the task of tacklingthe social, legal, economic, environmental, demographic andsecurity challenges facing the country. Highlyrecommended. " Joseph Fewsmith, Boston University, author of The Logic andLimits of Political Reform in China "In the flood of books on China, this is one of the most conciseand clearly written." The Age "The beauty of Fenby s book is that it is superblyconcise; with over 30 years experience of covering China,Fenby is able to distil complex ideas down to their core elementsand burnish them with accompanying illustrative anecdotes." LSE Review of Books