Contents; Acknowledgements; Part I. Foundations: 1. Introduction: Bayesian reasoning for qualitative research; 2. Fundamentals of Bayesian probability; Part II. Operationalizing Bayesian Reasoning in Qualitative Research: 3. Heuristic Bayesian reasoning; 4. Explicit Bayesian analysis; 5. Bayesian analysis with multiple cases; 6. Hypotheses and priors revisited; 7. Scrutinizing qualitative research; Part III. Bayesianism in Methodological Perspective: 8. Comparing logical Bayesianism to frequentism; 9. A unified framework for inference; Part IV. Bayesian Implications for Research Design: 10. Iterative research; 11. Test strength; 12. Case selection; 13. Worked examples; References; Contents; Index.
Provides guidance for Bayesian updating in case study, process-tracing, and comparative research, in order to refine intuition and improve inferences from qualitative evidence.
Tasha Fairfield is an Associate Professor at the London School of Economics, with a Ph.D in political science from the University of California, Berkeley, and an M.S. in physics from Stanford University. Her publications include Private Wealth and Public Revenue in Latin America (Cambridge, 2015), which won the Donna Lee Van Cott Book Award. Andrew E. Charman is a Lecturer and Researcher in Physics at the University of California, Berkeley, and an expert in Bayesian statistics. Beyond analyzing measurements of antimatter and the foundations of quantum mechanics, he has explored methods for optimal congressional apportionment and statistical mechanical models of gerrymandering. His previous work with Tasha Fairfield received APSA's QMMR Sage Paper Award.
'Social Inquiry and Bayesian Inference outlines the
philosophy, logic, and mathematics of Bayesian process tracing more
thoroughly than any other source to date, and it translates them
into practical advice that qualitative researchers can carry out
even if they don't want to wade through the details of the
math. This will be the seminal statement on Bayesian process
tracing for many years to come. It should be on the syllabus of
everyone teaching case study methods and the bookshelf of everyone
using these methods in their own research.' Andrew Bennett,
Professor of International Relations, Georgetown University
'Fairfield and Charman have written a major book that will resonate
across the social sciences. They manage to combine astute technical
discussion of the Bayesian approach with a 'how to' that will
assist researchers regardless of approach or prior experience with
these tools.' Stephan Haggard, Lawrence and Sallye Krause
Distinguished Professor, School of Global Policy and Strategy,
University of California San Diego
'In this book, Fairfield and Charman develop the most systematic
and concrete approach to qualitative research in political science.
The Bayesian framework provides a clear structure for learning from
evidence within and across cases, and the book provides clear and
actionable guidelines that scholars can take on board. Readers will
learn a great deal from this book about designing and carrying out
rigorous and transparent qualitative research.' Hillel David
Soifer, Associate Professor, Department of Political Science,
Temple University
'This book sets out a powerful set of tools for undertaking
systematic and analytically explicit qualitative inference.
Fairfield and Charman provide a clear and accessible introduction
to Bayesian principles and show how they can be applied to the
kinds of questions and data with which qualitative social
scientists routinely grapple. This volume represents an important
step forward for the development and teaching of qualitative
methods.' Alan Jacobs, Professor of Political Science, University
of British Columbia
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